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Gold Rallies But Remains Volatile

by Michael Locklear

Federal Reserve Bank of ChicagoOctober 1, 2012 – Positive moves in hedge fund buying and gains in bullion prices (bullion is showing the highest quarterly price increases in two years) pushed gold prices up dramatically today. Continued speculation about increased inflation resulting from recent monetary easing actions from the Federal Reserve pushed gold to a 10 month high.

In an interview with CNBC, Charles Evans President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said that there is more that the Fed could do to shore up the economy and that unemployment would likely remain high, above 7%, into 2014. He further indicated that in the event that monetary easing appeared to be creating an increased danger of inflation the Federal Reserve could adjust its accommodations to compensate for the threat. Gold had its greatest gains in this third quarter since June of 2010 as a result of anticipation of and the final materialization of the third round of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.

Announcements by the European Central Bank, United States Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan has significantly increased the demand for gold as a hedge against other investment risks and the looming threat of possible inflation as major central banks move toward more economic stimulus in order to ship shore up their struggling economies. Gold holdings in exchange traded funds have also surged and reached a record on September 25 as analysts continue to project bullishness in the gold market. The last six weeks of seeing the highest increase since February. Due to the Feds promise that it will continue its stimulus program until such time that it sees an improvement in jobs numbers and the housing market as investors rushing to put more money into gold, as inflation fears continue to motivate investors.

As of September 28 gold prices have increased 13% this year. Last year as concerns over problems in the euro zone increased, investors pushed the price of gold to a record high on September 6,2011 of $1923.70 per ounce.

Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile given the expectations for negative possibilities in global economies and economic news continues to take investors on a roller coaster ride. The euro is rising and falling against the dollar, China’s manufacturing numbers continue to look bleak and news out of Spain and Greece continued to be troublesome.

Some analysts now are projecting that not only will gold reach $1800 per ounce shortly it can be reasonably expected to reach $1900 per ounce by the end of the year. This would still be below the 2011 record set in September. Meanwhile gold exchange traded products have added 4 million ounces to its holdings, reaching its highest levels since March 2011. There are several reports on economic conditions expected this week, so there should be a very interesting week for gold price watchers. There may continue to be some selloffs at least until  gold passes the $1800 per ounce mark, some analysts are projecting. It’s going to be a very interesting week.

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